Monday’s Clouds

If you follow me on twitter I said the reason for the cloud cover was an inversion.  What is an inversion you ask?  Well normally the air temperature gets colder as we go up in the atmosphere. An inversion is when the opposite occurs, temperatures actually get warmer.  Today there was an inversion around 5,000ft above your head.  What that inversion did was trap the low level moisture and kept those clouds around.  It also provided some fog and drizzle early this morning.

Below is a picture that shows the vertical profile of the atmosphere. The red line is temperature and the area circled in white is where the inversion was located.

Hope this helped explain the situation.  If you have any questions, email me at jlogan@kait8.com or post a comment here. I hope to get back to posting again. Take care!!

Frosty Sunday AM…Warming Trend

Good Sunday evening blog readers. We started the morning on the cold side with most locations in the low to mid 30s, but there were some areas that hit the upper 20s.  The average first frost in Jonesboro is on October 20, so we beat that by two days this year.    Temperatures warmed into the upper 50s and a few low 60s. 

As we start another week it will be chilly or cold, depending on how you look at it.  We should start off in the upper 30s with western areas of Region 8 staying around 40.  The warming trend starts tomorrow as everyone returns into the low to mid 60s.  Other than it being warmer, it will also be sunny!!  

High pressure will control (keep us dry) our weather until late Wednesday but more so into Thursday.  At that time another cold front will move through and knock our temperatures down once again.  Some of the forecasts out there are going to warm for next weekend.  Next Friday & Saturday high’s should only be in the 50s. 

Have a great work week and I’ll have another update tomorrow!!  Take care

Stubborn Clouds

Good Saturday blog readers.  I know, I know…it’s been awhile since I posted last.  I need to get in a routine of posting my thoughts on the weather.  I’m able to go more in depth on here then on the tv side. 

The clouds have been slow to exit Region 8 today.  The reason for that…we had a low level temperature inversion that kept moisture in place forming the low clouds.  As we go up in the atmosphere our temperatures are supposed to drop, but with an inversion they do just the opposite. There is the brief weather 101 for the day.   

Below is a visible satellite image at 3:45pm cdt.

You can see the back edge of the clouds were stretching from northern Dunklin County back into northern Clay, Randolph, Sharp, and down into Izard county.  So some places to the north did see some sunshine on Saturday. 

I expect to see “some” clearing pushing further south later this evening into tonight.  We will see some clouds on our Sunday, but everyone should see some sunshine. 

That’s it for now, but I’ll have another update later.  Catch my wet forecast tonight on Region 8 News at 6.

Summer in Review…Look Ahead

Right here in Region 8 it seemed like we didn’t really have a summer. What I mean is it really didn’t feel like summer temperature wise.  Not only that but we saw tons of rain and even set record rainfall totals.  I know I’m a little behind on posting this…but hey it’s better late than never.  Below is a link to the full report from NOAA.  Very interesting….

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090910_summerstats.html

Looking down the road…the long range models show us staying below average temperature wise through the upcoming winter and near to slightly above normal precipitation.  Of course this is way down the road and it’s only a computer…but for you winter lovers like me, it’s always fun just to look. 

Now the forecast over the next couple of days:

1. A line of showers and storms at 7:45pm in NW Arkansas will move east tonight.  Gusty winds, heavy rain and dangerous lightning.
2. On Tuesday periods of rain & storms continue and that should hold temps in the upper 70s.
3. Scattered showers and storms continue the next several days and temps look to be stay below average. Upper 70’s to near 80, but it depends on how much rain and cloud cover.

That’s all for now.  Take care and thanks for stopping by.

Finally An Update

It’s been over a month since my last post.  That’s just crazy!  Sorry for the lack of posting, kind of got out of the habit I guess.

Lets talk some weather shall we.  Here is a look at our surface map.   

The picture should continuously update.  We have a cold front stretching from Kansas into Texas.  It will slowly move east today, but move across Region 8 on Friday.  Behind that front an unseasonably cool Canadian High Pressure will move in for the second half of the weekend into next week.

Most forecast models have kept us dry for Today except our in-house model at the station.  It usually is fairly accurate, so we have included a 10% chance of a pop-up shower or storm otherwise partly cloudy.  Moisture will be increasing from the south so it will feel a little sticky.  High’s will be in the upper 80’s and a 90 or 91 can’t be ruled out further south like Searcy or West Memphis. 

On Friday scattered thunderstorms will develop with the cold front in the area.  Here is what the 6Z NAM says for Friday PM:

It shows scattered showers and storms but the activity doesn’t look all that heavy.  Looks like we will see a good bit of cloud cover and that may keep our temperatures down.  Right now i’m thinking mid 80’s, but as always that will depend on how much clouds and precip is in the area. 

We have the threat for a few showers and storms on Saturday, but I still think that’s mainly in the morning hours.  The NAM wants to spark a few showers on Sunday.  I have left the forecast dry right now becuase the chances look very small.  However with the cool air aloft if we get some sunshine, it won’t take much to pop up a few showers.  I will keep following that over the next few days though.

Temperatures are the focus on my radar right now.  An unseasonably cool airmass for this time of year will move in starting Sunday and continue for a few days.  Here is a look upstairs at the NAM 500mb chart for Sunday: 

When you see this you are probably wondering what does this even show.  Since we are discussing temperatures, just focus on the solid black lines which are height contours.  Notice on Sunday how there is a trough (dip) in the eastern part of the country.  This will mean a cool down in our area starting on Sunday.  The Canadian models 500mb Chart for Sunday shows the same thing.  At this point temperatures look to take a dip into the mid 70’s with overnight lows in the mid 50’s and maybe some low 50’s.  Keep in mind our average (the temps over the last 30 years) high is 89 and the average low is near 67.  If everything pans out…we will be well below both.

*TRACKING THE TROPICS* 

As of the 11am ET National Hurricane Center (NHC) update, Tropical Storm Danny is about 320 miles Northeast of Nassau.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

Our trough that will dive into the eastern part of the country this weekend will try and keep Danny away from the east coast, but it will be very close and I will continue to follow it.  Anyone living in the Carolinas stretching to New England should keep a close eye on Danny. 

Here is the latest infrared satellite picture of Tropical Storm Danny.  The brighter coolers indicate taller cloud tops.

 

We are also watching a new Tropical Wave just off the coast of Africa.

You can get the latest information from the NHC with our Hurricane Tracker at kait8.com.  That’s all for now.  Have a great day.

Stormy Week

It’s been awhile since my last post, but lets get started with what’s going on now.  A quasi-stationary front is draped  from Blytheville to Little Rock and south of Jonesboro. 

 

(Click the image above for an updated surface map.)

It will continue to meander in the area on Monday, but the upper level support is limited.  Monday looks mainly dry, but an isolated shower or storm (10% chance) can’t be ruled out otherwise Partly Cloudy.  We will start the day in the upper 60’s to near 70 before recovering to the upper 80’s.

The models have changed a little over the last couple of days in respect to rain on Tuesday.  Don’t get me wrong, it’s still in the forecast, but some models are differing on the timing.  The NAM (North American Mesoscale) model shows scattered precip a little later on Tuesday and not as heavy as it once showed.  The GFS (Global Forecasting System) model has a little more coverage.  I went with a 40% chance of showers and storms.  A better chance comes on Wednesday with our cold front and again later on Thursday as another impulse rides along the front.  We could be looking at a flood threat this week.

Temperatures from Tuesday and beyond will depend on how much clouds and rain we receive.  Right now as it looks with a little less coverage on Tuesday low to mid 80’s.  On Wednesday we should be near 80, but some locations may not make it out of the 70’s.  Anyway you slice it, 90’s don’t look likely from Tuesday through next Sunday.

I’ll have another update soon.  Take care and thanks for stopping by.

Unseasonably Cool

Good early early Saturday morning. First lets take a look back at Friday’s weather.  We hit a high of 82 degrees with a few clouds throughout the day along with much drier and less humid air.  I forecasted low 80’s and this is only the beginning of the unseasonably cool airmass for this time of year.

Now lets take a look ahead at our weather with the headlines.

1. I have reviewed all the latest weather data and my thoughts are still the same as yesterday.  However I’m still wondering about some forecasts. 
2. Saturday: Mostly Sunny skies, drier and less humid. Just beautiful.  I’m still sticking with high’s around 80 give or take a degree. Some areas may actually see upper 70’s.  Tomorrow night we look to drop down into the upper 50’s and may be in record territory once again. The record low is 58 set back in 1945 and I think we have a good chance of tying it.
3. Sunday: A few clouds around again with high’s in the low 80’s after starting the day in the upper 50’s like I stated above.  There is the chance that Sunday may be similar to Saturday in terms of temperature wise.  But at this time I’m going just slightly warmer.
4. Monday: Temperatures will be slow to warm as the northwest flow aloft continues. Partly Cloudy skies as the dry and low humidity continues. Highs in the low to a few mid 80’s.
5. Slight chance of rain on Tuesday, but the chances look to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday. 
6. Temperatures will depend on precipitation and clouds on Tuesday-Thursday.  Models are differing of course as always.  At this time I will stick with 80’s.  
7. Looking down the road at the long range European model, it shows another trough next Sunday.  It does not look near as strong as this one, but still it would suppress the heat. 

That’s it for this weather update.  Thanks again for stopping by and reading my thoughts on the forecast.  Have a great weekend and enjoy the fantastic weather!!  I’ll have the latest forecast tomorrow night on Region 8 News at 6.  Take care! 

El Niño, Global Cooling and Region 8 Forecast

As promised I would explain El Niño a little more. First of all the term El Niño is Spanish for “the Christ child.”  It got this name because the warming events that occur around Christmas.   El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.  The pressure field and in turn changes the wind field. That means that our jetstream is going to change. Our jetstream controls our weather patterns and in a nutshell brings us different weather.

The effects of El Niño will not be felt till late fall into the upcoming winter.  During the past its been found that El Niño’s cause wet and cooler conditions across the southern United States.  This is due to an active jetstream that’s more west to east (zonal).  Milder conditions are usually extend from Alaska to the Pacific northwest leading to less active winters. 

There have been years that  the forecasts have differed from what was stated above.  That’s just an average of what has occurred in past El Niños.  So there could be different occurrences this upcoming winter.

The tropical Pacific Ocean just off the west coast of South America is continuing to warm. You can see that in this picture below.

 

You can find more information about El Niño here: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/.  I decided to keep this brief. There is a lot more about El Niño but some of which is in depth.

Now lets quickly discuss  Global Cooling.  Some places across the US haven’t even really experienced summer-like weather this year.  Now that hasn’t been the case across Region 8.  We have had our fair share of days in the 90’s.  However places in the Ohio Valley have set record low high temperatures and there is a threat for that to happen again this weekend.  An unusual weather pattern for this time of year is going to bring some cool air south.  In the future I plan on discussing more signs of Global Cooling, but here is a fantastic article by my friend, Meteorologist Rich Apuzzo.   http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-3854-Cincinnati-Weather-Examiner~y2009m7d16-Strange-clouds-are-signs-of-change 

Taking a look at the forecast ahead, I’m left laughing at the MOS (Model Output Statistics) guidance.  It’s based on climatology and it’s not going to handle this weekend’s temperatures.  Those that follow it will miss this weekends cool temps. 

Headlines:

1. Cooler and less humid air moves in on Friday with high’s in the low 80’s.  There is a slight chance for a morning shower, but otherwise Partly Cloudy.  
2. The comfortable weather lasts through the weekend. High’s on Saturday around 80 give or take a degree with some places staying in the upper 70’s. It may be a touch warmer on Sunday with low 80’s.  We will see a few clouds around on both days. 
3. Temperatures will moderate back into the mid 80’s mid next week.  

That’s it for tonight…have a great Friday!!

Looking Ahead

A stationary front will be around Region 8 on Monday keeping the chance for scattered storms in the forecast.  The upper level ridge will continue to weaken before it starts building back in Tuesday into Wednesday.  Lets take a quick look at headlines tonight.

1. Chance of scattered storms on Monday. It will not be a washout but just keep your umbrella handy. High around 89. If we get more sunshine we could see low 90’s.
2. Tuesday our stationary front will lift north as a warm front and the temperatures will start to heat up.  We can’t rule out a slight chance (10%) on Tuesday, but most locations stay dry. Highs in the low to mid 90’s.
3. Mostly Sunny on Wednesday with a chance of a few storms late.  Most of the day remains completely dry. High around 97. 
4. Another cold front moves in Thursday into Friday bringing a better chance for scattered storms.  Behind this front temperatures drop into the mid 80’s and lower humidity. 

One quick note…the models last week forecasted temperatures too warm.  That may be the case for Tuesday and Wednesday this week as well.  That’s it for now…have a great week!!

Below Average

The title spells out the weather for Monday and Tuesday, but the heat returns by later in the week.  Looking back at Sunday acold front moved slowly down to the south but finally pushed through. This front brought a good deal of clouds to the area along with a few scattered showers and storms, but those were south of Jonesboro. Now looking ahead to our work week.

Time for the headlines 

1. High pressure starts to work in on Monday. We will see cooler temperatures, lower humidity with partly cloudy skies. High’s in the mid 80’s.
2. A upper ridge starts to slide east through the week. It will get stronger and bring warmer temperatures by the middle and end of next week.  Mid 90’s by the end of next week.
3. The ridge looks like it will weaken some by the end of next weekend and eventually head back to the western US.  This will put us in a NW flow allowing for the chance of storms. Right now I only included a 10% chance on both Saturday and Sunday. The Canadian forecast model shows a trough over the eastern US by late next weekend.  This would mean the chance for storms and the heat relaxing somewhat. Hopefully this pans out.

That’s all for now. Have a great Monday and enjoy the comfortable temps. Take care!!